The analysis of COVID-19 in-hospital mortality: A competing risk approach or a cure model?

Competing risk analyses have been widely used for the analysis of in-hospital mortality in which hospital discharge is considered as a competing event. The competing risk model assumes that more than one cause of failure is possible, but there is only one outcome of interest and all others serve as competing events. However, hospital discharge and in-hospital death are two outcomes resulting from the same disease process and patients whose disease conditions were stabilized so that inpatient care was no longer needed were discharged. We therefore propose to use cure models, in which hospital discharge is treated as an observed "cure" of the disease. We consider both the mixture cure model and the promotion time cure model and extend the models to allow cure status to be known for those who were discharged from the hospital. An EM algorithm is developed for the mixture cure model. We also show that the competing risk model, which treats hospital discharge as a competing event, is equivalent to a promotion time cure model. Both cure models were examined in simulation studies and were applied to a recent cohort of COVID-19 in-hospital patients with diabetes. The promotion time model shows that statin use improved the overall survival; the mixture cure model shows that while statin use reduced the in-hospital mortality rate among the susceptible, it improved the cure probability only for older but not younger patients. Both cure models show that treatment was more beneficial among older patients.

Hospital bed occupancy rate is an independent risk factor for COVID-19 inpatient mortality: a pandemic epicentre cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 first struck New York City in the spring of 2020, resulting in an unprecedented strain on our healthcare system and triggering multiple changes in public health policy governing hospital operations as well as therapeutic approaches to COVID-19. We examined inpatient mortality at our centre throughout the course of the pandemic. METHODS: This is a retrospective chart review of clinical characteristics, treatments and outcome data of all patients admitted with COVID-19 from 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021. Patients were grouped into 3-month quartiles. Hospital strain was assessed as per cent of occupied beds based on a normal bed capacity of 1491. RESULTS: Inpatient mortality decreased from 25.0% in spring to 10.8% over the course of the year. During this time, use of remdesivir, steroids and anticoagulants increased; use of hydroxychloroquine and other antibiotics decreased. Daily bed occupancy ranged from 62% to 118%. In a multivariate model with all year's data controlling for demographics, comorbidities and acuity of illness, percentage of bed occupancy was associated with increased 30-day in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 (0.7% mortality increase for each 1% increase in bed occupancy; HR 1.007, CI 1.001 to 1.013, p=0.004) CONCLUSION: Inpatient mortality from COVID-19 was associated with bed occupancy. Early reduction in epicentre hospital bed occupancy to accommodate acutely ill and resource-intensive patients should be a critical component in the strategic planning for future pandemics.

Incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation in COVID-19 is associated with increased epicardial adipose tissue.

PURPOSE: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) can predict AF in the general population. We aimed to determine if CAC and EAT measured by computed tomographic (CT) scanning can predict new-onset AF in patients admitted with COVID-19 disease. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, post hoc analysis of all patients admitted to Montefiore Medical Center with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis from March 1st to June 23rd, 2020, who had a non-contrast CT of the chest within 5 years prior to admission. We determined ordinal CAC scores and quantified the EAT volume and examined their relationship with inpatient mortality. RESULTS: A total of 379 patients were analyzed. There were 16 events of new-onset AF (4.22%). Patients who developed AF during the index admission were more likely to be male (75 vs 47%, p < 0.001) and had higher EAT (129.5 [76.3-197.3] vs 91.0 [60.0-129.0] ml, p = 0.049). There were no differences on age (68 [56-71] vs 68 [58-76] years; p = 0.712), BMI (28.5 [25.3-30.8] vs 26.9 [23.1-31.8] kg/m2; p = 0.283), ordinal CAC score (3 [1-6] vs 2 [0-4]; p = 0.482), or prevalence of diabetes (56.3 vs 60.1%; p = 0.761), hypertension (75.0 vs 87.3%, p = 0.153), or coronary artery disease (50.0 vs 39.4%, p = 0.396). Patients with new-onset AF had worse clinical outcomes (death/intubation/vasopressors) (87.5 vs 44.1%; p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Increased EAT measured by non-contrast chest CT identifies patients hospitalized with COVID-19 at higher risk of developing new-onset AF. Patients with new-onset AF have worse clinical outcomes.

A History of Heart Failure Is an Independent Risk Factor for Death in Patients Admitted with Coronavirus 19 Disease.

AIMS: The association between cardiovascular diseases, such as coronary artery disease and hypertension, and worse outcomes in COVID-19 patients has been previously demonstrated. However, the effect of a prior diagnosis of heart failure (HF) with reduced or preserved left ventricular ejection fraction on COVID-19 outcomes has not yet been established. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively studied all adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to our institution from March 1st to 2nd May 2020. Patients were grouped based on the presence or absence of HF. We used competing events survival models to examine the association between HF and death, need for intubation, or need for dialysis during hospitalization. Of 4043 patients admitted with COVID-19, 335 patients (8.3%) had a prior diagnosis of HF. Patients with HF were older, had lower body mass index, and a significantly higher burden of co-morbidities compared to patients without HF, yet the two groups presented to the hospital with similar clinical severity and similar markers of systemic inflammation. Patients with HF had a higher cumulative in-hospital mortality compared to patients without HF (49.0% vs. 27.2%, p < 0.001) that remained statistically significant (HR = 1.383, p = 0.001) after adjustment for age, body mass index, and comorbidities, as well as after propensity score matching (HR = 1.528, p = 0.001). Notably, no differences in mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, or renal replacement therapy were observed among HF patients with preserved or reduced ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of HF is a risk factor of death, substantially increasing in-hospital mortality in patients admitted with COVID-19.

Coronary artery calcification and epicardial adipose tissue as independent predictors of mortality in COVID-19.

Recent epidemiological studies have demonstrated that common cardiovascular risk factors are strongly associated with adverse outcomes in COVID-19. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and epicardial fat (EAT) have shown to outperform traditional risk factors in predicting cardiovascular events in the general population. We aim to determine if CAC and EAT determined by Computed Tomographic (CT) scanning can predict all-cause mortality in patients admitted with COVID-19 disease. We performed a retrospective, post-hoc analysis of all patients admitted to Montefiore Medical Center with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis from March 1st, 2020 to May 2nd, 2020 who had a non-contrast CT of the chest within 5 years prior to admission. We determined ordinal CAC scores and quantified the epicardial (EAT) and thoracic (TAT) fat volume and examined their relationship with inpatient mortality. A total of 493 patients were analyzed. There were 197 deaths (39.95%). Patients who died during the index admission had higher age (72, [64-80] vs 68, [57-76]; p < 0.001), CAC score (3, [0-6] vs 1, [0-4]; p < 0.001) and EAT (107, [70-152] vs 94, [64-129]; p = 0.023). On a competing risk analysis regression model, CAC ≥ 4 and EAT ≥ median (98 ml) were independent predictors of mortality with increased mortality of 63% (p = 0.003) and 43% (p = 0.032), respectively. As a composite, the group with a combination of CAC ≥ 4 and EAT ≥ 98 ml had the highest mortality. CAC and EAT measured from chest CT are strong independent predictors of inpatient mortality from COVID-19 in this high-risk cohort.

Statin Use and In-Hospital Mortality in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus and COVID-19.

Background Severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is characterized by a proinflammatory state with high mortality. Statins have anti-inflammatory effects and may attenuate the severity of COVID-19. Methods and Results An observational study of all consecutive adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to a single center located in Bronx, New York, was conducted from March 1, 2020, to May 2, 2020. Patients were grouped as those who did and those who did not receive a statin, and in-hospital mortality was compared by competing events regression. In addition, propensity score matching and inverse probability treatment weighting were used in survival models to examine the association between statin use and death during hospitalization. A total of 4252 patients were admitted with COVID-19. Diabetes mellitus modified the association between statin use and in-hospital mortality. Patients with diabetes mellitus on a statin (n=983) were older (69±11 versus 67±14 years; P<0.01), had lower inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, 10.2; interquartile range, 4.5-18.4 versus 12.9; interquartile range, 5.9-21.4 mg/dL; P<0.01) and reduced cumulative in-hospital mortality (24% versus 39%; P<0.01) than those not on a statin (n=1283). No difference in hospital mortality was noted in patients without diabetes mellitus on or off statin (20% versus 21%; P=0.82). Propensity score matching (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.83-0.94; P<0.01) and inverse probability treatment weighting (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.84-0.92; P<0.01) showed a 12% lower risk of death during hospitalization for statin users than for nonusers. Conclusions Statin use was associated with reduced in-hospital mortality from COVID-19 in patients with diabetes mellitus. These findings, if validated, may further reemphasize administration of statins to patients with diabetes mellitus during the COVID-19 era.

SARS-COV-2 infection presenting as ST-elevationmyocardial infarction.

We describe a patient presenting with chest discomfort, anterolateral ST elevation, and developing acute cardiogenic shock secondary to SARS-COV-2infection-patient zero presenting to our institution's cardiac catheterization laboratory. The emergent presentation with limited clinical information led to exposure of personnel. The diagnosis was complicated by two negative tests for SARS-COV-2, and high-clinical suspicion from the patient's occupational history led to additional testing in order to confirm the diagnosis.